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CS2 case opening odds simulator
How CaseFrames decides what you open. Each container family has its own rarity weights, and every number on this page is read from the same settings the simulator uses.
How an opening is decided
- Pick the tier. A rarity tier is drawn using the family weights below.
- Pick the item. Every item in that tier has an equal share of the tier's chance.
- Roll the variant. Eligible items roll StatTrak, and skins roll a float that sets their condition.
- Animate. The result is saved before the roulette starts; the animation only reveals it.
A container without some tiers splits the missing share across the tiers it has, in the same proportions. Each family section shows those variations with the number of containers that use them.
Weapon cases
Browse all 42Every weapon case has a rare special pool of knives or gloves. Skins get a simulated float and condition. Eligible items are StatTrak 10% of the time.
| Tier | Chance per opening | About |
|---|---|---|
| Covert | 1.98% | 1 in 51 |
| Classified | 7.92% | 1 in 13 |
| Restricted | 19.8% | 1 in 5 |
| Mil-Spec | 69.3% | Most openings |
| Rare special | 1% | 1 in 100 |
Sticker capsules
Browse all 239Stickers have no float, wear or StatTrak. Many capsules contain only some tiers.
| Tier | Chance per opening | About |
|---|---|---|
| Extraordinary | 0.8% | 1 in 125 |
| Exotic | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
| Remarkable | 16% | 1 in 6 |
| High Grade | 80% | Most openings |
177 of 239 sticker capsules have fewer tiers
- 84 High Grade 100%
- 28 Exotic 3.23%, Remarkable 16.13%, High Grade 80.65%
- 25 Exotic 16.67%, Remarkable 83.33%
- 18 Extraordinary 0.826%, Remarkable 16.53%, High Grade 82.64%
- 16 Exotic 100%
- 4 Remarkable 16.67%, High Grade 83.33%
- 1 Extraordinary 4%, Exotic 16%, Remarkable 80%
- 1 Exotic 3.85%, High Grade 96.15%
Graffiti boxes
Browse all 3Each sealed graffiti design is one reward, with no float, wear, colour roll or StatTrak.
| Tier | Chance per opening | About |
|---|---|---|
| Exotic | 5% | 1 in 20 |
| Remarkable | 20% | 1 in 5 |
| High Grade | 75% | Most openings |
Souvenir packages
Browse all 164Every drop is a Souvenir skin with simulated wear and never StatTrak. Many packages lack the top tiers.
| Tier | Chance per opening | About |
|---|---|---|
| Covert | 0.1% | 1 in 1,000 |
| Classified | 0.4% | 1 in 250 |
| Restricted | 2.5% | 1 in 40 |
| Mil-Spec | 7% | 1 in 14 |
| Industrial | 20% | 1 in 5 |
| Consumer | 70% | Most openings |
115 of 164 souvenir packages have fewer tiers
- 57 Classified 0.4%, Restricted 2.5%, Mil-Spec 7.01%, Industrial 20.02%, Consumer 70.07%
- 32 Restricted 2.51%, Mil-Spec 7.04%, Industrial 20.1%, Consumer 70.35%
- 12 Restricted 8.47%, Mil-Spec 23.73%, Industrial 67.8%
- 8 Mil-Spec 7.22%, Industrial 20.62%, Consumer 72.16%
- 6 Covert 0.333%, Classified 1.33%, Restricted 8.33%, Mil-Spec 23.33%, Industrial 66.67%
Rare special items
Only weapon cases have a rare special pool: 42 of 42. Each opening has a 1% chance of drawing from it, shared equally by the case's specials. The Kilowatt Case has 13, so each is 0.077%.
StatTrak
Eligible weapon-case items are StatTrak 10% of the time. All 576 knives can be StatTrak; the 72 gloves never are. Souvenir skins, stickers and graffiti never roll StatTrak.
Wear and float
Weapon-case and souvenir skins get a float drawn uniformly across the item's own allowed range, limited to the conditions that item can have. The float sets the condition:
| Condition | Float |
|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.00 – 0.07 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.07 – 0.15 |
| Field-Tested | 0.15 – 0.38 |
| Well-Worn | 0.38 – 0.45 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.45 – 1.00 |
Odds and prices
Odds decide which virtual item you receive. Opening costs and item values are separate: they are USD market references refreshed daily, used only for your virtual balance. Nothing here can be cashed out or traded.